NFL Divisional Round Playoffs – Odds, betting picks, and promos

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The opening week of the NFL Playoffs is in the books and the slate of games lived up to the hype.

This week, we look ahead to action-packed games in the the Divisional Round Playoffs.

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⚡ Quick NFL picks for Divisional Round Playoffs

Divisional Round Playoffs preview

The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs looked like themselves once again and produced a convincing 26-7 victory over the Miami Dolphins.

The reigning NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles did not secure the same fate as they were blown out 32-9 by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bringing on some serious questions about Nick Sirianni’s job and many other key franchise decisions. C.J. Stroud once again showed how he is not just any other rookie and led the Texans to a 45-14 victory over the Browns in which Joe Flacco showed his age.

Josh Allen and the Bills also remained the hottest team in the league and took down the Steelers 31-17. Perhaps most surprisingly, Jordan Love and the Packers produced a convincing victory over the Dallas Cowboys. The 48-32 final score is closer than the game actually was with Green Bay leaping out to a 27-0 lead in the first half and the Cowboys never having a true chance.

There are some serious decisions to be made within the Dallas organization as well with Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott being at the forefront of these. Jared Goff also got his revenge over his former franchise as the Lions defeated the LA Rams 24-23 with Matt Stafford receiving boos from his former fans.

The Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers will each return to the picture this week after earning the first-round bye weeks during the regular season. The remaining youthful quarterbacks in C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love will attempt to lead their teams to a victory on the road against the pair of Super Bowl favorites as the number of remaining teams sinks to eight.

Entering this weekend, the 49ers hold the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl at +175 with Baltimore right behind them at +290. The Buffalo Bills are next up at +500 with the Chiefs shortly behind them at +700, although these two teams are set to face off.

The Detroit Lions hold +900 odds of winning it all and there is a notable dropoff behind them in which the Buccaneers and Packers each are listed at +2500 on DraftKings Sportsbook and the Texans are considered the biggest longshot at +2800. With the full stakes of the playoffs having set in, here is a look at some of the best values on the NFL Betting slate as the Divisional round prepares to kick off.

NFL Wild Card Weekend - NFL odds & betting tips


NFL Wild Card Weekend – NFL odds & betting tips

⭐ Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills: Chiefs +3 | (-120) at BetMGM

In what will be the first road playoff game of Patrick Mahomes’ career, the Kansas City Chiefs will travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills for their third postseason matchup since 2020. It has been an up-and-down season for both sides with neither looking like a true Super Bowl contender for most of the year.

For the Bills, they started the year with a 6-6 record with their playoff aspirations looking dim before winning five consecutive games to end the season- including a Week 14 victory over the Chiefs. Buffalo rode this momentum into the playoffs and looked as dominant as they have all season. Kansas City has a drastically different identity than they have come to be known for with their lack of offensive weapons showing face throughout the season.

Instead, the Chiefs have been reliant on their defense to steer them to their 12 victories. The Chiefs rank 2nd in the league in points allowed at 17.3 points per game and also are in the top five in 1st downs allowed, and score percentage. Scoring was not an issue against the Dolphins, however, as they put up 26 points last week with their defense looking as sharp as expected. 

When these two teams faced off in Week 14, the Bills produced a 20-17 victory with the game feeling like a coin flip for which side will win throughout. Even still, that win will not satisfy the desire for revenge for Buffalo as the memories of being knocked out by Kansas City in the 2020 AFC Championship Game and 2021 Divisional Playoffs remain fresh.

Taking care of the ball will be a major factor in the outcome of this game as Buffalo coughed up 30 turnovers in the regular season. Josh Allen’s gun-slinger mentality is both an asset and a concern in his game although he is coming off a four-touchdown performance without a turnover in the Wild Card round.

More concerning than this is the injury factors for Buffalo. Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White were each lost earlier on in the season and LB Terrel Bernard and CB Taron Johnson each left the game last week. Each of their statuses is uncertain for this week and LB Tyrel Dodson also missed the previous matchup with a shoulder injury.

Buffalo’s defensive unit ranked 4th in the league in points allowed per game, but it is fair to wonder if they will have enough capable bodies to continue this level of production.

The Chiefs have turnover issues of their own as they turned the ball over 28 times this season and hold a -11 point differential overall. However, there is something comforting about believing in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid heading into a playoff game.

This will mark Mahomes’ 16th playoff start in his six years as the starter. Buffalo’s rushing defense ranks 28th in yards per carry which may play into the Chiefs’ strengths as they look to lean on Isaiah Pacheco. There are plenty of concerns with the Miami Dolphins in their own right, but it was a convincing win for Kansas City against a team that looked among the best in the league for most of the season.

This is set to be one of the more thrilling matchups of the weekend and likely the NFL playoffs as a whole. But getting the Chiefs as an underdog is too much to pass up on.

Mahomes already has an impressive postseason track record and has proven success against the Bills in years past. The Bills have been hot, but have not been perfect. This is a matchup that many will be prisoners of the moment and expect differently than what we have seen over the larger sample size.

Buckle up for an awesome football game, and jump over the value in getting the Chiefs as an underdog. The +120 moneyline is an appealing value, but take the +3 spread at -120 odds for some additional insurance.

🏈 Bet on Chiefs +3 at -120 with BetMGM 🏈

⭐ Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens: Texans +9.5 | (-110) at BetRivers

There is plenty of hype surrounding the Baltimore Ravens and deservingly so. They finished the year 13-4, winning six consecutive games to close the season before resting most of their starters in the final week.

Baltimore had the number-one-ranked scoring defense, allowing just 16.5 points per game over the course of the season. They also forced the most turnovers, allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns, held opponents to the fewest net yards per rush attempt, and allowed the 6th fewest yards overall.

Offensively the Ravens also shined, ranking 4th in scoring on the year by producing 28.4 points per game. Lamar Jackson had an MVP-caliber season and the Ravens led the league in rushing yards while ranking 4th in score percentage. 

Houston is also riding a successful season in which they have outperformed expectations in a major way. Behind rookie quarterback CJ Stroud and first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, the

Texans secured a 10-7 record and won the AFC South outright. They proved they were no fluke by producing the largest margin of victory of the opening weekend, taking down the Browns 45-14. While Baltimore will be a whole different beast than Cleveland, putting up 45 points on the Browns’ defense is still noteworthy.

It is time to stop waiting for CJ Stroud to hit the rookie wall and begin recognizing him as the elite franchise quarterback that he has played like. The Texans go as Stroud does and that should paint an optimistic picture from the Texans’ perspective

The rest vs rust debate for teams coming off bye weeks is oftentimes overhyped. This is especially the case considering the Ravens are 13-3 when coming off an extra week of rest under Jim Harbaugh. The biggest concern should be with the Texans being able to slow down the dynamic Baltimore offense which scored over 30 points in eight of their final 11 games.

These two teams faced off in Week 1 with Baltimore securing a 25-9 victory although Stroud and the Texans have looked vastly different since this time. Houston had also lost by double-digits to the Browns in Week 14 only to turn around and blow them out on the bigger stage. Stroud threw for 356 yards against a Browns’ defense that was holding opponents to the fewest yards and passing yards throughout the length of the season. 

While the Ravens are the deeper and more talented team, when you have a quarterback playing as well as Stroud you cannot count the Texans out. The 9.5-point spread is far too large as this feels destined to be a close game down the stretch.

Expect this to end within a single-digit margin and for the Texans to cover this number. This season should be considered a success from the Texans’ perspective regardless of how this ends, but don’t expect them to go down without swinging.

Take the +9.5 at -110 odds on BetRivers and prepare for Stroud to continue his near-perfect rookie season by keeping things close against his MVP counterpart.

🏈 Bet on Texans +9.5 at -110 with BetRivers 🏈

⭐ Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Lions -6.5 | (-108) at DraftKings

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers produced a convincing victory over the Philadelphia Eagles defeating them 32-9. While the game was closer than the score indicated, with Philadelphia trailing 16-9 until late in the 3rd quarter, this still is a massive upset win.

The Eagles limped into the playoffs looking like a broken football team for the final two months of the season and were put out of their misery by the 337 passing yards and three touchdowns from Baker Mayfield.

While Tampa Bay deserves credit for the victory it was much more about the Eagles going 0-9 on 3rd downs and tallying just 42 total rushing yards than the Buccaneers playing particularly well. They now earn the opportunity to travel to Detroit after the Lions won their first playoff game in 32 years. 

Emotions were high in Detroit last week with Matt Stafford making his return to play in front of the organization that he spent the first 12 years of his career representing. Jared Goff may not have outdueled the quarterback which he was previously traded for statistically, but did enough to lead Detroit to a 24-23 win.

This is all in the past now and Detroit is just two victories away from making it to the Super Bowl. They have leaned on their offense this year which scored the 5th most points in the league at 27.1 per game. Detroit also ranked 3rd in yards, 5th in 1st downs, 3rd in net yards per pass attempt, 1st in rushing touchdowns, 5th in net yards per rush attempt, and 8th in score percentage.

While their defense leaves some to be desired and has been the sinking point of the organization for several years, they have improved this season. Most notably, they rank in the top five in rushing yards and net yards per rush attempt. They have gotten some key defense starters back, such as C.J. Gardner-Johnson, which should further solidify things.

Tampa Bay ranks dead last in rushing yards on the season anyway so don’t expect them to do any damage on the ground. The bottom line is this will come down to Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers passing attack which is a scary thought for both sides.

Mayfield deserves a ton of credit for exceeding expectations in a major way this season. In his 17 starts, he has tallied 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while throwing for a career-high 4044 yards.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin each eclipsed 1000 yards this season and were the beneficiaries of their new quarterback’s gun-slinging mentality. While Mayfield has set himself up for a nice paycheck this offseason, his run is set to come to an end here.

Expect the lack of running game from Tampa Bay to make their offense one-dimensional and for there not to be enough Baker Mayfield magic to keep pace with Detroit’s scoring ability.

The Lions have not received enough respect for being considered contenders and still carry a chip on their shoulders. Look for them to punch their ticket to their first NFC Championship game since 1991 as Dan Campbell has the team fully locked in and ready to play.

Don’t be surprised if this turns into a full blowout as the Lions comfortably cover the -6 spread.

🏈 Bet on Lions -6.5 at -108 with DraftKings 🏈

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About the author

Sean Barnard

Sean Barnard has worked in sports media for the past five years. He has spent time as the 76ers Lead Writer for Philly Sports Network, Associate Editor at CluchPoints, Eagles Beat Reporter for YardBarker, and more. He also owns and operates his own Podcast Network called Pick Swap Media and is a radio host on Fox 102.5 The Gambler presented by iHeartMedia. Sean has written over 1500 articles and recorded over 500 podcasts and is just getting started. Based out of the Philadelphia region in the United States, Sean is a lifelong passionate sports fan who can be reached on Twitter at @Sean_Barnard1 where he rattles off basketball breakdowns and other news.

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